Sadly, the “student” (Russia) has by far exceeded the teacher (Iran) by now, and only depends on China to supply components.

To prevent damage, one has to either:

• prevent their navigation (success varies by week)
• reduce Russian revenue (moderately successful, there is economic trouble in Russia)
• negotiate with China to stop the supply of parts (so far, no success)
• strike at assembly factories (increasingly hard, as drones can be made anywhere and factories are far)
• strike at logistics (doable, but needs a steady stream of high quality intelligence)

Of these avenues, I think Ukraine has been most successful at preventing navigation and reducing Russia’s revenue stream by just droning them back.

What has never been there, can’t be switched.

When local media released security camera footage of the couple fighting on a dark street outside it – Şebnem in a summer dress, squaring her shoulders at Bayhan – Sığın’s suspicions grew. She spoke with waiters in a nearby fish restaurant, who recalled the pair angrily leaving what was meant to be a romantic dinner there.

/…/

Sığın also got access to the police records, including a video they took inside the hotel room the morning after Şebnem’s death. This appears to show evidence of a clash: large spots of blood on the floor and a torn dark green-painted fingernail tangled in the bedsheet.

Summary: Turkish police investigate so superficially that it would permit men to push women out of windows without getting charged.

The prosecutor assigned to the case told İbrahim he was so confident Aysun had jumped 17 metres (56 feet) from her office window to her death that they would release her body for burial only if he signed a document attesting she had taken her own life. Hüsniye begged her husband not to sign and eventually a workaround was found. “The prosecutor wouldn’t say why he thought it was a suicide,” İbrahim says. “He was supposed to go to the scene, but he didn’t.”

Summary: Turkish prosecutors sometimes refuse to review evidence and pressure people to sign statements which ease their work.

There could be something to this line of speculation.

A honeypot for influential people is not a new idea, in principle it doesn’t take an intelligence agency to accomplish.

However, a lasting honeypot which works for decades and nobody is busted? That suggests there is some party involved which a common cop fears to touch. Common cops are fearful of interfering in intelligence operations, among other things.

I definitely want to read more about this puzzle. As for the documents, having taken a brief look - so much redaction. Too much, not just names.

Thank you. That’s something I did not know about. I read the timeline of events.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestine_Action

It seems like an abuse of power by the government, parliament and cops, suggesting that several branches of power structures are capable of using violence against speech they don’t like.

However, in my eyes, this does not sum up to “China has better freedom of speech”. In the UK, the ban was publicly debated and opposed by several people and media channels, and is being reviewed by a court, with outcomes still unknown. In China, treatment would be more severe.

But it definitely pushes the UK towards the low end of the freedom of speech scale.

Nope, do your research. You can only look down if you find a high enough horse.

Now try to determine my political allegiance. :)

If the plan becomes an actual amnesty, then something good has occurred.

how you’ve been scammed into another quagmire in West Asia

I love how you guess I’m American. :) Research my background to find the proper horse to look down from.

Thousands have been arrested for opposing genocide in Gaza under terrorism laws

Do you have a source for this claim?

And a note about their troops… the Syrian government had to specifically order their troops not to display other flags than the Syrian flag. Because some started displaying ISIS flags on taken territory. That’s some very interesting army.

What the Kurds achieved from this compromise: their troops will be integrated into the Syrian army as units, not as individuals. So, they have the option to collectively rebel if things turn very dark. And some people from their political institutions will be integrated into Syria too. But very few.

True. I wonder what changed from his viewpoint.

This reply got me curious and I browsed your history a bit, finding this gem:

These “protests” are a CIA Mossad collaboration. Down vote me all you want but it’s true.

I will now also downvote you, thank you very much.

Rebellions, near-revolutions and actual revolutions occur for various reasons around the world. If you suspect external manipulation as the primary cause every time, you will be wrong most of time.

If you suspect external manipulation as a contributing factor at some times, you may be right.

People have ability to organize on their own (sometimes poorly and with catastrophic defeat as a result). They can be dead wrong about their chances of success, or know their chances and try anyway.

The biggest external influence in this case appears to have been Trump’s promise of stepping in to protect the protesters (their mistake: they may have believed him) and his claim that “help is on the way” when they were already practically supressed. These words cost many lives.

Israel is, of course, intensely interested in the future of Iran, as their most dangerous regional opponent. But Israel cannot force the government of Iran to make so bad economic decisions that traders on a market close their shops and riot.

How did you arrive on that conclusion? I read several UK-based news sites and they criticize the government on a daily basis.

I appreciate the call for introspection, but I think human rights violations should be criticized regardless, and even more widely than currently. I don’t care who does it - it’s everyone’s duty.

Special attention should be focused on severe and extensive violations.

Example: should we not criticize Iran for killing protesters? Should we not criticize Russia for attempting to conquer Ukraine and bombing civilians? Should we not criticize Israel for bombing civilians and starving Gaza’s population? Those are severe and extensive violations. If nobody makes a fuss, they become normality.

As for China… violations in China are extensive. Millions of people are affected by detainment, coercive relocation or forced labour programs. National identities of minority peoples are being erased, people are relocated by force or imprisoned if they oppose. People’s languages and customs are being banned from public life and education, religious minorities are discriminated against. Some violations are also severe (death penalty is meted out regularly for those who oppose too much).

I note: an average European country can criticize that without looking hypocritical.

Yesterday I criticized my own country, today I will criticize another country, and I expect politicians to meet the same standard.

Ai Weiwei hasn’t been known as a wumao. He didn’t appear out of nowhere, he has some history.

I’m not one of his downvoters, but I think he vastly overestimates the capability of a psyop to produce articles in The Guardian. These people know various ways of checking a claim, and they don’t typically hurry, but lag behind other news outlets.

And I think he’s not well informed about what life in Iran has been like since 1979.

As for manufacturing consent: Trump has shown well that he doesn’t care about consent. It may eventually become a reason for his downfall, but rational arguments and credible evidence are not things the current US administration deals in.

As for the matter of whether military intervention could help someone in Iran, or help more than hurt - I don’t know. Military interventions haven’t previously revived the dead. If the majority of protersters were killed, they cannot be helped. If the majority went into hiding, they can be helped, but it may not work as intended.

There is also no reason to suspect Trump of genuinely wanting to help them. He has other motivations. If he was a humanitarian, he’d have ordered an immediate strike at Iran’s government communications and unmanned weapons drops for protesters when the massacre was ongoing. He considered something and intelligence indicators were in the red, but did nothing.

A sincere question: are you new to issues related to Iran? Do you not know beforehand what the regime convicts people of, and what the legal system currently looks like?

A bit of background:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judicial_system_of_the_Islamic_Republic_of_Iran

Hadd crimes are considered to be “claims against God”, and they are punishable by a mandatory, fixed sentence that was laid down in the Koran and Hadith. They are very rarely applied in practice, because they require a high standard of proof and if the person is repentant or if there is any reasonable doubt, it may not be carried out. Two witnesses or a confession are required for a conviction. For sexual crimes, 4 witnesses are required.[citation needed]. Others forms of evidence (such as video evidence) are admitted for hadd punishment, except in cases of consensual sexual crimes. They are:

Waging war against God (moharebeh) and spreading corruption in Earth (mofsede-fel-arz): judge has option of 1) death penalty; 2) crucifixion for three days; 3) amputation of right hand and left foot; 4) exile/imprisonment

This crime is for somebody who used a weapon to strike fear and spread disorder, for example through armed robbery, kidnapping, terrorism/violent armed crimes, rape, and gang violence. This charge has been used in Iran as a political charge/treason/disrupting stability of Islamic Republic, and belonging to anti-regime opposition groups.

There is nothing new about an opposition supporter risking a death sentence through a “war against God” or “corruption on Earth” accusation.

Last I heard, a rapper called Tataloo (not sure if imprisoned or executed) was sentenced to death for “corruption on Earth”. But I grew up in the decade when one could read news about Salman Rushdie fleeing abroad since grand ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini simply asked every Muslim to kill him if possible. For publishing poetry. This led to several people actually trying, and Rushie was stabbed last time in 2022. Also see: Satanic Verses controversy.

I hope this brief introduction of the justice system of Iran helps you assess the realism of various news. My last encounter with their justice system was a few months ago, when I helped raise money to pay blood money for a child bride, who had been sentenced to death for killing her violent husband. The death sentence was avoidable for rich people, but she was poor, so instead of walking free, it was foreseeable that she’d be hanged. So Iranians collected money to save her and succeeded. I’m not an Iranian and I just helped a bit, and my money wasn’t needed in the end. But I kind of know what justice in Iran looks like.

That’s very good to hear. :)

For those who want the details, I can recommend an open-access scientific article.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004224001639

Put shortly: these mosquitos don’t naturally carry the bacterium Wolbachia, but if it’s introduced in their population, it can bring about a big reduction in dengue virus transmission.

We report here on an average reduction in dengue fever of 62.4% (confidence intervals 50–71%) in 20 releases sites when compared to 76 control sites in high-rise residential areas. Importantly the level of dengue reduction increased with Wolbachia frequency, with 75.8% reduction (61–87%) estimated at 100% Wolbachia frequency. These findings indicate large impacts of wAlbB Wolbachia invasions on dengue fever incidence in an operational setting, with incidence expected to further decrease as wider areas are invaded

…and that will save many people their health, or even their life. :)

Another hypothesis: people who recently immigrated more typically live in settings where an older family member can help with child care. Could it be true?

As for Gaza, it’s not suitable comparison material due to high mortality. What is being sought is a solution that works for low-mortality societies where care for the elderly is a considerable job and budget line.

I think that providing people with total economic certainty of being able to raise a child without risk of poverty, early in their life (before their parents start needing care) might hit a nail. Not sure if it’s the only nail, though.