FuckyWucky [none/use name]

Pro-stealing art without attribution

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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: March 21st, 2023

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  • Ayandeh had attracted deposits from millions of ordinary Iranians by offering unusually high interest rates, creating what one Iranian oversight official allegedly described as a “Ponzi scheme.”

    I find it interesting why such a commercial bank was allowed to operate by the regulators. The WSJ article says it was giving bad loans to cronies, so that was definitely the government’s fault. But the bank’s collapse alone doesn’t explain why there was a run out of the rial. It’s easy to blame the collapse of the bank for the collapse of the rial, but I think it’s mostly mainstream economic propaganda. Also, backstopping is literally what all the Western central banks and treasuries did in 2008 and again in 2023, because the banks gave too many loans or held assets which were illiquid, with no inflation, in fact deflation as demand collapsed in 2008. So clearly, it’s not as simple as backstopping deposits.

    I think it could be said that the dual exchange rate system where the central bank offered preferential rates to certain sectors, and rent seekers too, made it much worse, since the official rate was much more rigid, undervalued because the central bank used reserves to maintain it, certain connected people may have used it to run to dollars while the state lost reserves. When it ran out, a massive devaluation was inevitable.

    Also, he doesn’t talk about the mechanics of how he created a dollar shortage. Did they try going after foreign banks Iran worked with, like in Iraq? I think the government is at least partly to blame, but this wouldn’t have happened if Iran weren’t sanctioned.









  • SOFR prints above IORB. The Fed quietly increases the size of its standing facility. QT continues but slows.

    Nope not happening, Fed will do whatever it takes to keep SOFR on its target.

    If you’re long risk assets—stocks, crypto, whatever—don’t panic yet. The Fed just handed the system a fresh $13.5 billion IV bag. That’s bullish in the very short term.

    It doesn’t mean anything. It’s an asset swap, they took bonds, gives reserves and the operation reverses the next day. Also, QE itself is super mid, and the only real effects that come from it is lower interest rates on long term assets, a shitty version of Yield Curve Control. The real mover is always Government spending and bank lending.

    One camp—and honestly, the one that kept me up last night—believes bank reserves are finally getting scarce again.

    There is nothing wrong with this, the banks just have to get money from Fed instead of IORB doing its thing. It doesn’t change much about how much banks lend. That depends on real economic conditions, and Fed can’t do much about that other than cutting rates itself.

    Also the September 2019 event didn’t result in Fed doing QE, that happened during COVID. There is a diff between QE and regular reserve management, QE pushes down yield on all Gov securities. And 2019 like yield spike is not going to happen due to the SRF.


  • There is no money printing. The US Government “prints” ie issues, all money is “printed”, always has been.

    Then the Gov taxes it back. And banks make you pay back loans. You can’t pay taxes unless you have money, so spending comes first. Spending creates income.

    No one ever lends US Govt any money. They make it, China has Dollars because they export to the US, not because they are financing US domestic borrowing.

    This isn’t exclusive to the US, it applies to China, Russia and all others too. None of their federal Governments borrow.






  • Once maybe. The fact is that the US and Israeli arms industries have commingled and each relies on the other for different expertise. A full arms embargo would certainly lead to at least the risk of Israel trading arms secrets for access to weapons made elsewhere. Israel is not a passive purchaser of weapons or intelligence technology.

    No, the entire economy is propped by the U.S. backstop. Israeli bonds, currency, financial assets are valued highly because U.S. defends it. It’s not always as explicit as military ‘aid’.

    Also, if these are the kind of arguments AOC is thinking about, she deserves to lose. I’m not attacking you, but AOC.